‘The fundamentals that brought investors to Greece remain in place’: M&A spotlight interview

How would you characterise the Greek M&A market today, including the main factors driving deal activity and the current financing environment, and which sectors are attracting the greatest interest from investors?

The Greek market has moved from recovery to maturity. Last year was a record, with around 180 transactions worth more than €20 billion, driven by a few very large deals. This year has been quieter in headline value but not in activity: the mid-market is busy, although buyers are more selective and preparation takes longer. The drivers are structural: investment-grade status, a repaired banking system, growth above the EU average and a generation of family-owned businesses facing succession.

Financing is available but no longer cheap. Greek banks are liquid and keen to fund acquisitions, yet two ECB rate rises this year have raised the cost of leverage and sharpened pricing discipline. Energy and renewables, financial services, technology, healthcare, food and beverage, and hospitality attract the most interest, with defence and cybersecurity gaining momentum.

What does the current investor mix look like in Greece, and how do the priorities of international private equity investors, strategic buyers, and Greek corporates differ when they assess potential transactions? Are you also seeing Greek businesses become more ambitious in pursuing acquisitions outside the country?

Inbound capital still sets the pace. International private equity looks for market leaders it can scale beyond Greece, so governance, quality of earnings and a credible exit route weigh as heavily as price. Strategic buyers, increasingly from the United States, the Gulf and core Europe, are guided by industrial logic. They pay for market position and synergies, but dig deeper into regulatory, employment and integration issues. We saw this recently when advising Germany’s Faller Packaging on its acquisition of Paperpack, the Greek pharmaceutical packaging company. Greek corporates and domestic funds move fastest and know local risk best; their focus is consolidation and building national champions.

Ambition abroad is real, too. Intralot’s acquisition of Bally’s international interactive business was the largest outbound deal by a Greek company in two decades, and Greek energy, building-materials and defence-technology groups are buying across Europe and in the United States.

The entry into force of Law 5202/2025 on May 23 2025 introduced a new foreign direct investment (FDI) screening regime in Greece. How is the regime affecting the way certain cross-border deals are assessed, structured, and timed?

The regime has been fully operational since November 2025, when the implementing ministerial decision opened the filing process, so the market has a year of experience. It catches non-EU investors, and EU vehicles they control, acquiring 25% or more in sensitive sectors such as energy, transport, health and digital infrastructure, or 10% in particularly sensitive ones such as defence, cybersecurity, AI and critical ports.

The practical effects are threefold. First, an FDI analysis now sits beside merger control at the start of a deal, including a look through the investor’s ownership chain. Second, clearance is a condition precedent with a standstill, which shapes long-stop dates, cooperation covenants and risk allocation. Third, parties add several months to the timetable, since the clock starts only with a complete file and stops when questions are asked. With no published decisions yet, we recommend a conservative approach to borderline cases.

What trends are you seeing in merger control before the Hellenic Competition Commission, and what should parties consider at an early stage to minimise the risk of regulatory issues disrupting their deal timetable?

The Hellenic Competition Commission has become more assertive. In July 2025 it prohibited Alphabet Education’s acquisition of Delta Schools after a Phase II review, a rare outcome in Greece, and in March 2026 Allwyn withdrew its bid for Novibet after the rapporteur recommended a prohibition. The message is that remedies will not always rescue a deal in a concentrated market, and that the Commission relies increasingly on economic evidence. On procedure, Law 5255/2025 abolished the 30-day filing deadline, in line with the EU model, but the review period runs only from a complete notification.

Our advice is to assess thresholds, market definition and overlaps before signing, prepare the economic analysis and data early, consider remedies before they are requested, and respect the standstill obligation in both SPA covenants and integration planning.

How are deal terms and processes evolving in Greece? In particular, are mechanisms such as warranty and indemnity insurance and locked-box pricing becoming more common, and what is happening to transaction timetables?

Deal terms are converging with wider European practice. Locked-box pricing is now common in auctions and sponsor-led sales, where sellers want price certainty and a clean exit, while completion accounts remain usual in bilateral deals with founders. Warranty and indemnity insurance has spread from the largest transactions into the upper mid-market, typically covering business and tax warranties, with specific indemnities or escrows for known risks. Earn-outs, deferred consideration and rollover equity are widely used to bridge valuation gaps, particularly where a founder stays on.

Timetables, however, are getting longer. Buyers scrutinise more closely, and the interval between signing and closing has grown because of merger control, FDI and sector approvals. Preparation is what protects the timetable today.

KBVL operates as Deloitte Legal in Greece. How does bringing legal advice together with tax and financial expertise change the way an M&A transaction can be delivered, particularly on complex or cross-border deals?

It changes both the quality of the advice and the way a deal runs. On many transactions, legal, tax and financial due diligence are carried out by separate advisers who compare notes late. We work with our Deloitte colleagues as one team from day one. A tax exposure or a working-capital point identified in due diligence goes straight into the price mechanism, the warranties and the indemnities, and the structure is tested legally and for tax at the same time. Clients receive one coordinated view of risk instead of three reports to reconcile.

Across borders, the Deloitte Legal network, with more than 2,500 legal professionals in over 75 countries, allows us to run multi-jurisdictional due diligence, merger control and FDI filings and post-closing integration under a single project structure. That is particularly valuable in carve-outs and reorganisations.

Looking ahead to 2027, what is the outlook for M&A in Greece? Where do you see the strongest opportunities for dealmaking, and what developments could have the greatest influence on the market over the next year?

I am cautiously optimistic. The fundamentals that brought investors to Greece remain in place, and the pipeline of mid-market transactions, succession-driven sales and private equity exits is healthy. I expect the strongest activity in energy and storage, infrastructure, healthcare, technology, food and beverage, and hospitality, further consolidation in financial services, and growing interest in defence.

Three developments will matter most. The first is the cost of money: if inflation and interest rates stay elevated, leveraged buyers will remain selective. The second is the end of the Recovery and Resilience Facility, which will test how much investment the private sector can sustain alone. The third is politics and regulation: a general election is expected in 2027, the FDI regime is still building its practice, and a revised EU screening regulation is on the way. Well-prepared deals will continue to get done.